5 Model simulation

5.1 Simulation periods and warmups

A quiescent start condition was adopted for velocity and water levels. Initialisation of salinity and temperature data was based on spatially variable ROMS data as described earlier. The simulations were then warmed-up for at least 21 days prior to all modelling tasks and result analysis, to develop the internal salinity and temperature distributions contributing to density stratification.

For each of the model scenarios, the models were run for 52 days excluding the warmup periods and Model outputs were extracted at every 15 minutes. Calibration period was selected based on measured data availability and the hydrodynamics were simulated for the one whole year;

  • Calibration period: 01/01/2013 to 01/03/2013

  • Simulation period: 01/01/2013 to 31/12/2013

Modeled data were compared against observed data (Figure ??)including;

  • Velocity data at S01 and S02 sites from JPPL

  • Temperature and salinity data at Stirling and Parmelia from Fremantle Ports Authority

  • Temperature and salinity data at the Central Buoy and South Buoy stations from Water Corporation

5.2 Water level

5.3 Velocity comparison

Comparisons between simulated velocities and ADCP measurements in the calibration at S01 and S02 were carried out. Measured data at different depths were compared with modeled data for the calibration periods.

The line plots shown in Figure 5-1 and Figure 5-2 demonstrate that the model reproduced the key characteristics of the velocity field at the different stations.

The model predictive skill was also tested statistically with calculations of the Index of Agreement (IOA), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). At project inception, the following calibration targets were agreed as indicators of satisfactory model validation (Table 5.1):

Table 5.1: Calibration goals for velocity
Variable IOA (-) MAE (m/s) RMSE (m/s)
X-component Velocity \(\geq\) 0.5 \(\leq\) 0.5 \(\leq\) 0.6
Y-component Velocity \(\geq\) 0.5 \(\leq\) 0.5 \(\leq\) 0.6

This statistical evaluation of the predicted currents at the ADCP locations is provided in Table 5.2, Table 5.3, Table 5.4 and Table 5.5 for S01 and S02 for different time periods.

Table 5.2: Summary of model predictive skill statistics for currents at S01 and S02 for the time period a
Site Layer type IOA Vx IOA Vy RMSE Vx RMSE Vy MAE Vx MAE Vy
S01 Top 0.55 0.83 0.029 0.042 0.022 0.033
S01 Bottom 0.53 0.63 0.031 0.046 0.025 0.036
S01 z_at_2.9m 0.48 0.81 0.047 0.056 0.037 0.045
S01 z_at_3.9m 0.52 0.79 0.034 0.051 0.027 0.041
S01 z_at_4.9m 0.53 0.78 0.034 0.048 0.026 0.038
S01 z_at_5.9m 0.55 0.75 0.035 0.048 0.027 0.037
S01 z_at_6.9m 0.53 0.70 0.037 0.050 0.029 0.038
S01 z_at_7.9m 0.48 0.62 0.039 0.055 0.031 0.042
S01 z_at_8.9m 0.44 0.51 0.040 0.060 0.032 0.047
S01 z_at_9.9m 0.41 0.41 0.042 0.063 0.033 0.049
S02 Top 0.55 0.44 0.023 0.041 0.018 0.034
S02 Bottom 0.59 0.58 0.025 0.050 0.020 0.041
S02 z_at_2.3m 0.40 0.50 0.250 0.280 0.210 0.240
S02 z_at_3.3m 0.39 0.52 0.110 0.110 0.085 0.085
S02 z_at_4.3m 0.58 0.63 0.038 0.047 0.029 0.038
S02 z_at_5.3m 0.56 0.57 0.033 0.046 0.026 0.037
S02 z_at_6.3m 0.51 0.51 0.032 0.046 0.025 0.037
S02 z_at_7.3m 0.49 0.46 0.030 0.047 0.024 0.038
S02 z_at_8.3m 0.47 0.43 0.029 0.047 0.023 0.038
S02 z_at_9.3m 0.45 0.42 0.029 0.048 0.023 0.039
S02 z_at_10.3m 0.45 0.41 0.029 0.051 0.023 0.041
S02 z_at_11.3m 0.44 0.43 0.031 0.053 0.024 0.043
S02 z_at_12.3m 0.46 0.47 0.032 0.055 0.025 0.044
S02 z_at_13.3m 0.48 0.51 0.033 0.057 0.025 0.045
S02 z_at_14.3m 0.51 0.56 0.035 0.058 0.027 0.046
S02 z_at_15.3m 0.57 0.59 0.035 0.059 0.027 0.047
S02 z_at_16.3m 0.57 0.61 0.036 0.059 0.028 0.047
S02 z_at_17.3m 0.57 0.63 0.036 0.056 0.028 0.045
S02 z_at_18.3m 0.52 0.63 0.036 0.052 0.027 0.042
Table 5.3: Summary of model predictive skill statistics for currents at S01 and S02 for the time period b
Site Layer type IOA Vx IOA Vy RMSE Vx RMSE Vy MAE Vx MAE Vy
S01 Top 0.45 0.80 0.031 0.046 0.025 0.037
S01 Bottom 0.57 0.63 0.030 0.041 0.023 0.032
S01 z_at_3m 0.39 0.81 0.042 0.056 0.033 0.045
S01 z_at_4m 0.46 0.78 0.038 0.054 0.031 0.043
S01 z_at_5m 0.49 0.75 0.037 0.051 0.030 0.040
S01 z_at_6m 0.52 0.71 0.036 0.049 0.029 0.038
S01 z_at_7m 0.51 0.65 0.036 0.048 0.029 0.038
S01 z_at_8m 0.47 0.58 0.037 0.050 0.030 0.039
S01 z_at_9m 0.46 0.54 0.039 0.049 0.031 0.039
S01 z_at_10m 0.50 0.50 0.039 0.048 0.030 0.038
S02 Top 0.33 0.31 0.036 0.039 0.028 0.031
S02 Bottom 0.54 0.56 0.032 0.042 0.025 0.032
S02 z_at_6.3m 0.47 0.44 0.049 0.048 0.040 0.038
S02 z_at_7.3m 0.42 0.37 0.045 0.047 0.035 0.037
S02 z_at_8.3m 0.35 0.33 0.044 0.047 0.035 0.037
S02 z_at_9.3m 0.31 0.31 0.043 0.047 0.034 0.037
S02 z_at_10.3m 0.30 0.34 0.042 0.047 0.033 0.037
S02 z_at_11.3m 0.33 0.37 0.041 0.047 0.032 0.037
S02 z_at_12.3m 0.37 0.41 0.041 0.048 0.032 0.038
S02 z_at_13.3m 0.42 0.44 0.041 0.050 0.032 0.039
S02 z_at_14.3m 0.46 0.47 0.041 0.051 0.032 0.039
S02 z_at_15.3m 0.48 0.50 0.042 0.052 0.033 0.040
S02 z_at_16.3m 0.49 0.53 0.042 0.051 0.033 0.040
S02 z_at_17.3m 0.52 0.56 0.040 0.050 0.031 0.038
S02 z_at_18.3m 0.52 0.57 0.038 0.047 0.030 0.037
S02 z_at_19.3m 0.50 0.57 0.037 0.044 0.029 0.035
S02 z_at_20.3m NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN NaN
Table 5.4: Summary of model predictive skill statistics for currents at S01 and S02 for the time period c
Site Layer type IOA Vx IOA Vy RMSE Vx RMSE Vy MAE Vx MAE Vy
S01 Top 0.44 0.66 0.041 0.044 0.036 0.035
S01 Bottom 0.47 0.60 0.028 0.032 0.022 0.024
S01 z_at_2.8m 0.43 0.56 0.048 0.056 0.040 0.045
S01 z_at_3.8m 0.45 0.59 0.049 0.054 0.041 0.044
S01 z_at_4.8m 0.47 0.68 0.045 0.046 0.037 0.038
S01 z_at_5.8m 0.49 0.70 0.043 0.039 0.035 0.032
S01 z_at_6.8m 0.45 0.67 0.040 0.036 0.032 0.028
S01 z_at_7.8m 0.41 0.55 0.037 0.040 0.029 0.032
S01 z_at_8.8m 0.42 0.50 0.032 0.040 0.025 0.030
S01 z_at_9.8m 0.40 0.45 0.031 0.042 0.024 0.031
S02 Top 0.63 0.54 0.031 0.040 0.025 0.030
S02 Bottom 0.59 0.69 0.032 0.038 0.024 0.029
S02 z_at_2.4m 0.61 0.61 0.059 0.059 0.045 0.046
S02 z_at_2.9m 0.60 0.65 0.050 0.057 0.040 0.043
S02 z_at_3.4m 0.62 0.64 0.049 0.055 0.038 0.042
S02 z_at_3.9m 0.63 0.62 0.046 0.054 0.036 0.042
S02 z_at_4.4m 0.61 0.59 0.045 0.053 0.035 0.040
S02 z_at_4.9m 0.60 0.57 0.044 0.052 0.035 0.040
S02 z_at_5.4m 0.59 0.54 0.043 0.051 0.034 0.039
S02 z_at_5.9m 0.57 0.51 0.043 0.051 0.033 0.039
S02 z_at_6.4m 0.57 0.48 0.041 0.050 0.032 0.038
S02 z_at_6.9m 0.55 0.45 0.041 0.049 0.032 0.038
S02 z_at_7.4m 0.54 0.44 0.039 0.048 0.031 0.037
S02 z_at_7.9m 0.51 0.42 0.039 0.048 0.030 0.037
S02 z_at_8.4m 0.49 0.42 0.038 0.046 0.030 0.036
S02 z_at_8.9m 0.46 0.42 0.038 0.046 0.030 0.035
S02 z_at_9.4m 0.45 0.43 0.038 0.045 0.030 0.035
S02 z_at_9.9m 0.43 0.45 0.039 0.045 0.030 0.036
S02 z_at_10.4m 0.43 0.47 0.039 0.044 0.030 0.034
S02 z_at_10.9m 0.42 0.46 0.040 0.047 0.030 0.036
S02 z_at_11.4m 0.43 0.51 0.040 0.045 0.030 0.035
S02 z_at_11.9m 0.42 0.52 0.041 0.047 0.032 0.037
S02 z_at_12.4m 0.45 0.55 0.041 0.047 0.031 0.037
S02 z_at_12.9m 0.47 0.56 0.042 0.047 0.033 0.037
S02 z_at_13.4m 0.48 0.58 0.042 0.048 0.032 0.038
S02 z_at_13.9m 0.50 0.59 0.044 0.051 0.034 0.040
S02 z_at_14.4m 0.52 0.62 0.045 0.050 0.034 0.039
S02 z_at_14.9m 0.53 0.64 0.047 0.051 0.036 0.040
S02 z_at_15.4m 0.56 0.66 0.047 0.051 0.036 0.040
S02 z_at_15.9m 0.53 0.66 0.049 0.053 0.037 0.041
S02 z_at_16.4m 0.56 0.68 0.048 0.052 0.037 0.040
S02 z_at_16.9m 0.57 0.69 0.047 0.052 0.037 0.040
S02 z_at_17.4m 0.58 0.69 0.045 0.051 0.035 0.040
S02 z_at_17.9m 0.56 0.67 0.045 0.052 0.035 0.040
S02 z_at_18.4m 0.56 0.63 0.043 0.054 0.034 0.042
Table 5.5: Summary of model predictive skill statistics for currents at S01 and S02 for the time period d
Site Layer type IOA Vx IOA Vy RMSE Vx RMSE Vy MAE Vx MAE Vy
S01 Top 0.26 0.91 0.035 0.045 0.028 0.036
S01 Bottom 0.60 0.78 0.034 0.054 0.027 0.040
S01 z_at_2.1m 0.35 0.90 0.043 0.054 0.033 0.041
S01 z_at_2.6m 0.36 0.90 0.039 0.053 0.030 0.040
S01 z_at_3.1m 0.35 0.90 0.037 0.051 0.029 0.039
S01 z_at_3.6m 0.33 0.89 0.037 0.050 0.029 0.039
S01 z_at_4.1m 0.33 0.88 0.037 0.051 0.029 0.039
S01 z_at_4.6m 0.33 0.87 0.037 0.051 0.029 0.039
S01 z_at_5.1m 0.35 0.86 0.037 0.052 0.030 0.040
S01 z_at_5.6m 0.37 0.85 0.038 0.053 0.030 0.040
S01 z_at_6.1m 0.41 0.84 0.038 0.053 0.030 0.040
S01 z_at_6.6m 0.47 0.82 0.038 0.055 0.030 0.041
S01 z_at_7.1m 0.48 0.80 0.040 0.057 0.031 0.042
S01 z_at_7.6m 0.50 0.78 0.041 0.059 0.032 0.044
S01 z_at_8.1m 0.56 0.75 0.041 0.061 0.032 0.045
S01 z_at_8.6m 0.58 0.72 0.043 0.062 0.034 0.047
S01 z_at_9.1m 0.58 0.69 0.047 0.064 0.036 0.048
S01 z_at_9.6m 0.59 0.66 0.052 0.063 0.040 0.048
S01 z_at_10.1m 0.53 0.62 0.061 0.058 0.049 0.044
S02 Top 0.60 0.63 0.035 0.042 0.028 0.032
S02 Bottom 0.47 0.56 0.033 0.061 0.026 0.044
S02 z_at_3.6m 0.62 0.73 0.051 0.066 0.040 0.047
S02 z_at_4.6m 0.65 0.70 0.046 0.056 0.036 0.041
S02 z_at_5.6m 0.62 0.65 0.044 0.051 0.034 0.038
S02 z_at_6.6m 0.58 0.59 0.041 0.049 0.033 0.036
S02 z_at_7.6m 0.51 0.50 0.041 0.050 0.032 0.037
S02 z_at_8.6m 0.48 0.45 0.040 0.052 0.032 0.039
S02 z_at_9.6m 0.43 0.42 0.042 0.056 0.032 0.041
S02 z_at_10.6m 0.42 0.42 0.041 0.061 0.033 0.044
S02 z_at_11.6m 0.43 0.42 0.042 0.066 0.033 0.046
S02 z_at_12.6m 0.45 0.44 0.043 0.071 0.033 0.050
S02 z_at_13.6m 0.47 0.49 0.042 0.074 0.033 0.053
S02 z_at_14.6m 0.46 0.56 0.044 0.073 0.034 0.053
S02 z_at_15.6m 0.46 0.62 0.044 0.070 0.034 0.052
S02 z_at_16.6m 0.44 0.65 0.043 0.064 0.033 0.048
S02 z_at_17.6m 0.46 0.69 0.042 0.057 0.032 0.043

5.4 Temperature

5.5 Salinity